TESTMagomed Ankalaev · 53%TEST probability 0.527 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
Steve Erceg vs Ramazan Temirov
Flyweight · no result recorded
BASELINERamazan Temirov · 77%BASELINE probability 0.235 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
DATARamazan Temirov · 77%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ELORamazan Temirov · 90%ELO probability 0.102 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
GLICKO2_SHADOWSteve Erceg · 58%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1728±143 vs 1650±264; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MASTERRamazan Temirov · 56%Trust-weighted 4.00-5.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MLRamazan Temirov · 53%ML probability 0.466 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MOMENTUMSteve Erceg · 51%
Islam Dulatov vs Wellington Turman
Welterweight · no result recorded
BASELINEIslam Dulatov · 89%BASELINE probability 0.887 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
DATAIslam Dulatov · 89%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ELOIslam Dulatov · 95%ELO probability 0.992 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
GLICKO2_SHADOWWellington Turman · 54%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1500±350 vs 1548±143; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MASTERIslam Dulatov · 95%Trust-weighted 9.00-0.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier A. Consensus 9/9 engines. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MLIslam Dulatov · 95%ML probability 0.949 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MOMENTUMIslam Dulatov · 95%Recency-weighted form 0.844 vs 0.000 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune
Heavyweight · no result recorded
BASELINETyrell Fortune · 60%BASELINE probability 0.401 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
DATATyrell Fortune · 60%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ELORizvan Kuniev · 79%ELO probability 0.785 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
GLICKO2_SHADOWTyrell Fortune · 53%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1467±318 vs 1500±350; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MASTERTyrell Fortune · 56%Trust-weighted 4.00-5.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MLRizvan Kuniev · 74%ML probability 0.742 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MOMENTUM
Valter Walker vs Thomas Petersen
Heavyweight · no result recorded
BASELINEThomas Petersen · 79%BASELINE probability 0.206 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
DATAValter Walker · 55%BASELINE pick with 2/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides).
ELOValter Walker · 95%ELO probability 1.000 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
GLICKO2_SHADOWValter Walker · 68%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1706±185 vs 1544±171; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin.
MASTERSam Patterson · 67%Trust-weighted 3.00-6.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines.
MLSam Patterson · 59%ML probability 0.410 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
MOMENTUMSam Patterson · 70%Recency-weighted form 0.260 vs 0.610 incl. layoff penalty.
ORACLESantiago Ponzinibbio · 57%Weighted differential +0.60 across striking, grappling, reach and age.
STYLESam Patterson · 51%Striker vs Complete Fighter (n=649 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10).
TESTSantiago Ponzinibbio · 66%TEST probability 0.664 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola
Lightweight · no result recorded
BASELINEIsmael Bonfim · 74%BASELINE probability 0.738 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
DATAIsmael Bonfim · 74%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ELOAxel Sola · 95%ELO probability 0.013 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
GLICKO2_SHADOWIsmael Bonfim · 59%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1698±190 vs 1607±276; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MARKETAxel Sola · 63%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus 160/-200 -> 0.366 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTERAxel Sola · 78%Trust-weighted 2.00-7.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 3/9 engines. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MLAxel Sola · 70%ML probability 0.300 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MOMENTUMAxel Sola · 71%Recency-weighted form 0.177 vs 0.427 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis
Lightweight · no result recorded
BASELINENurullo Aliev · 81%BASELINE probability 0.808 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
DATANurullo Aliev · 81%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides).
ELOMike Davis · 53%ELO probability 0.475 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
GLICKO2_SHADOWNurullo Aliev · 68%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1839±221 vs 1666±165; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin.
MASTERMike Davis · 56%Trust-weighted 4.00-5.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 5/9 engines.
MLNurullo Aliev · 65%ML probability 0.646 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
MOMENTUMNurullo Aliev · 64%Recency-weighted form 1.265 vs 0.699 incl. layoff penalty.
ORACLEMike Davis · 76%Weighted differential -2.35 across striking, grappling, reach and age.
STYLEMike Davis · 53%Wrestler vs Complete Fighter (n=386 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10).
TESTMike Davis · 95%TEST probability 0.050 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
Cody Gibson vs Abdul Hussein
Bantamweight · no result recorded
Magomed Tuchalov vs Brendson Ribeiro
Light Heavyweight · no result recorded
Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said
Light Heavyweight · no result recorded
Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev
Welterweight · no result recorded
Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki
Lightweight · no result recorded
Analysis and entertainment only. Not betting advice.
Recency-weighted form 1.058 vs 1.007 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ORACLESteve Erceg · 60%Weighted differential +0.82 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
STYLESteve Erceg · 51%Complete Fighter vs Striker (n=649 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
TESTSteve Erceg · 69%TEST probability 0.690 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ORACLEIslam Dulatov · 95%Weighted differential +11.33 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
STYLEIslam Dulatov · 52%Complete Fighter vs Grappler (n=224 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
TESTIslam Dulatov · 95%TEST probability 0.997 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
Tyrell Fortune
· 58%
Recency-weighted form 0.869 vs 1.211 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ORACLETyrell Fortune · 63%Weighted differential -1.10 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
STYLETyrell Fortune · 51%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
TESTRizvan Kuniev · 50%TEST probability 0.500 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ORACLEAxel Sola · 52%Weighted differential -0.12 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
STYLEAxel Sola · 51%Striker vs Complete Fighter (n=649 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
TESTIsmael Bonfim · 61%TEST probability 0.608 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.