UNFOLD MMA — Prediction Lab

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The Card

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethjetitlemain event

Lightweight · Justin Gaethje def. Ilia Topuria (KO/TKO, R4 5:00)

BASELINE✗ Ilia Topuria · 83%Defense-first: Topuria edges on str_def 64% vs 51%, td_def 93% vs 74%, sapm 3.83 vs 7.05, win_rate 1.000.

BOOKWORM✗ Ilia TopuriaCONFIRM: unanimous consensus on undefeated champ vs 37.6yo with 51% str_def absorbing 7.05/min; base rates support; fragility low.

DATA✗ Ilia Topuria · 83%DB-confirmed BASELINE: 17-0, three straight title TKOs (db: last3 W-W-W all KO/TKO); zero contradiction flags vs Gaethje's 2-1 recent.

ELO✗ Ilia Topuria · 99%Elo 4108 vs 3311: expectancy 0.99 — largest rating gap on the card.

MASTER✗ Ilia TopuriaTrust-weighted 9.0-0.0 (all voting engines incl MARKET 0.846 devig). Tier A. BOOKWORM CONFIRM.

ML✗ Ilia Topuria · 89%v2.3 logistic 0.89: elo_diff (+797, strongest coefficient) plus win_rate and defense differentials.

MOMENTUM✗ Ilia Topuria · 53%Form 1.344 vs 1.199: both on W streaks; Topuria's 3 title TKOs vs Gaethje's 2 wins; 349d layoff partially offsets.

ORACLE✗ Ilia Topuria · 84%Weighted differential +3.29 for Topuria: str_def +13, td_def +19, sapm and win_rate gaps dominate Gaethje's slpm edge.

STYLE✗ Ilia Topuria · 55%Complete Fighter vs Pressure Fighter (no archetype-pair history in db; framework judgment): complete skill sets historically defuse pure pressure when defense differential is this wide.

TEST✗ Ilia Topuria · 64%Aggression-first: Gaethje leads slpm 6.48 vs 4.81 but Topuria's sub_avg 1.1 + td_avg 1.96 + comparable accuracy carry the offensive composite.

Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Ganetitle

Heavyweight · Ciryl Gane def. Alex Pereira (KO/TKO, R2 1:27)

BASELINE✗ Alex Pereira · 63%Defense-first: Pereira edges sapm-adjusted composite; Gane better sapm 2.33 vs 3.50 but Pereira td_def 79% vs 47% and win_rate carry it.

BOOKWORM✗ Alex PereiraCAUTION: MASTER 67% vs market coin-flip (-115/-105) — engine confidence exceeds market signal; ORACLE dissent on efficiency metrics; 38.9yo divisional debut.

DATA✗ Alex Pereira · 63%DB-confirmed BASELINE: Pereira avenged Ankalaev (db 2025-10-04 W) at LHW; Gane's last decisive win is a 2024-12 split decision; no override flags.

ELO✗ Alex Pereira · 89%Elo 3720 vs 3355: expectancy 0.89 from the LHW title run; note Elo carries no weight-class-move penalty.

MASTER✗ Alex Pereira · 67%Trust-weighted 6.0-3.0 (ORACLE, TEST, STYLE dissent for Gane; MARKET 0.524 barely Pereira). Tier B. BOOKWORM CAUTION.

ML✗ Alex Pereira · 59%v2.3 logistic 0.59: elo_diff +365 dominates; striking differentials nearly flat.

MOMENTUM✗ Alex Pereira · 51%Form 0.874 vs 0.843: near-even; Pereira W-L-W vs elite, Gane NC-W; 251d vs 230d layoffs comparable.

ORACLE✓ Ciryl Gane · 74%Weighted differential -2.11 favors Gane: sapm 2.33 elite, reach 81 vs 79, age 36.2 vs 38.9 — formula sides against the new heavyweight.

STYLE✓ Ciryl Gane · 55%

Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi

Bantamweight · Sean O'Malley def. Aiemann Zahabi (KO/TKO, R2 4:02)

BASELINE✗ Aiemann Zahabi · 70%Defense-first: Zahabi str_def 69% vs 60%, sapm 4.08 vs 3.40 mixed but td_def 83% and win_rate 0.875 edge the composite.

BOOKWORM✓ Sean O'MalleyCAUTION: full UW sweep for Zahabi (13/14) vs v7 majority O'Malley — cross-system divergence fight of the card; Zahabi streak is real but age 38.6 + reach -4in vs market -360.

DATA✗ Aiemann Zahabi · 70%DB-confirmed BASELINE: Zahabi 6-fight win streak (db: Vera, Aldo, Munhoz, Basharat); O'Malley 1-2 in last 3 (both losses to Dvalishvili); no override flags.

ELO✓ Sean O'Malley · 81%Elo 3171 vs 2918: expectancy 0.81; Zahabi's streak came against lower-rated opposition.

MASTER✓ Sean O'Malley · 72%Trust-weighted 6.5-2.5 (BASELINE, DATA, MOMENTUM dissent for Zahabi; MARKET 0.762). Tier B. BOOKWORM CAUTION. NOTE: UW MASTER diverges (Zahabi).

ML✓ Sean O'Malley · 68%v2.3 logistic 0.68: elo_diff +253, slpm and accuracy differentials positive; age_diff -7.0 also favors O'Malley.

MOMENTUM✗ Aiemann Zahabi · 64%Form 0.695 vs 1.237: Zahabi W-W-W vs O'Malley W-L-L; 237d vs 139d layoff.

ORACLE✓ Sean O'Malley · 86%Weighted differential +3.66 O'Malley: slpm +1.51, str_acc +13, reach +4in, age -7.0yrs outweigh Zahabi's str_def edge.

STYLE✓ Sean O'Malley · 55%

Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis

Heavyweight · Josh Hokit def. Derrick Lewis (KO/TKO, R2 4:09)

BASELINE✓ Josh Hokit · 94%Defense-first: Hokit sapm 0.83 vs 2.57, str_def 66% vs 39%, td_def 100% vs 52% — across-the-board defensive edge.

BOOKWORM✓ Josh HokitCAUTION: profile-overconfidence pattern — UW Tier A sweep on 4-fight stats (ORACLE saturated 224-139); Blaydes win validates direction but confidence magnitudes are unreliable; Lewis power = live upset path (29 KOs).

DATA✓ Josh Hokit · 94%DB-confirmed BASELINE with 1 flag (Lewis finish_rate higher): Hokit beat Curtis Blaydes (db 2026-04-11 W) + two R1 KOs; Lewis L via TKO in Jan.

ELO✗ Derrick Lewis · 80%Elo 2475 vs 2240 favors Lewis: rating lag on a 4-fight prospect — ELO has not priced the Blaydes win at K=120.

MASTER✓ Josh Hokit · 61%Trust-weighted 5.5-3.5 (ELO 2.0x dissent for Lewis holds it to Tier C; MARKET 0.745 Hokit). BOOKWORM CAUTION.

ML✓ Josh Hokit · 73%v2.3 logistic 0.73: defense and td differentials dominate the negative elo_diff (-235).

MOMENTUM✓ Josh Hokit · 70%Form 1.464 vs 0.618: Hokit W-W-W (62d layoff, most active on card) vs Lewis L-W-W at 41.3yo.

ORACLE✓ Josh Hokit · 90%Weighted differential +26.0 Hokit (capped reading: saturation from 4-fight sample — td_avg 8.74, sapm 0.83 inflate; direction valid, magnitude unreliable).

STYLE✓ Josh Hokit · 51%

Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler

Lightweight · Mauricio Ruffy def. Michael Chandler (KO/TKO, R1 4:29)

BASELINE✓ Mauricio Ruffy · 80%Defense-first: Ruffy str_def 58% vs 43%, sapm 4.09 vs 4.52, td_def 85% vs 61%, win_rate .867 vs .697.

BOOKWORM✓ Mauricio RuffyCONFIRM: consensus aligned with market (-700); Chandler at 40.1 off three losses and 14-month layoff; no trap structure detected.

DATA✓ Mauricio Ruffy · 80%DB-confirmed BASELINE: Chandler L-L-L (db: Pimblett sub, Oliveira UD, Paddy TKO...) — 0 contradiction flags against Ruffy; 426d layoff at age 40.1.

ELO✓ Mauricio Ruffy · 98%Elo 3126 vs 2443: expectancy 0.98.

MASTER✓ Mauricio Ruffy · 94%Trust-weighted 8.5-0.5 (TEST alone dissents; MARKET 0.840). Tier A. BOOKWORM CONFIRM.

ML✓ Mauricio Ruffy · 84%v2.3 logistic 0.84: elo_diff +683 plus defense differentials; age_diff -10.1 compounds.

MOMENTUM✓ Mauricio Ruffy · 99%Form 1.230 vs 0.000: Chandler 3 straight losses + 426d layoff (-25%) floors the v1.1 score; saturation artifact noted, direction emphatic.

ORACLE✓ Mauricio Ruffy · 55%Weighted differential +0.37 Ruffy — narrow: Chandler's td_avg and historical win_rate keep the formula close despite defensive gaps.

STYLE✓ Mauricio Ruffy · 51%Striker vs Wrestler (n=402 db matchups): strikers 48.8% baseline, but Ruffy td_def 85% vs Chandler td_acc 41% blunts the wrestling path; slight striker lean.

Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus

Middleweight · Bo Nickal def. Kyle Daukaus (KO/TKO, R1 4:34)

BASELINE✓ Bo Nickal · 78%Defense-first: Nickal sapm 2.07 vs 2.90, str_def 59% vs 42%, td_def 100% vs 82%, win_rate .889 vs .810.

BOOKWORM✓ Bo NickalCONFIRM: consensus aligned with market (-300); Daukaus is the step-back opponent after Nickal's loss; trap structure absent.

DATA✓ Bo Nickal · 78%DB-confirmed BASELINE: Nickal W-L-W (KO, TKO loss, UD) vs Daukaus W-W-L; Daukaus Elo 1823 is the lowest on the card; no override flags.

ELO✓ Bo Nickal · 96%Elo 2373 vs 1823: expectancy 0.96.

MASTER✓ Bo Nickal · 89%Trust-weighted 8.0-1.0 (MOMENTUM alone dissents; MARKET 0.718). Tier A. BOOKWORM CONFIRM.

ML✓ Bo Nickal · 84%v2.3 logistic 0.84: elo_diff +550 plus accuracy/defense differentials.

MOMENTUM✗ Kyle Daukaus · 55%Form 0.808 vs 0.981: Daukaus W-W in last two (sub, KO) vs Nickal W-L-W; mild dissent.

ORACLE✓ Bo Nickal · 89%Weighted differential +4.18 Nickal: accuracy, defense, takedown and win-rate terms all positive.

STYLE✓ Bo Nickal · 56%Wrestler vs Grappler (n=221 db matchups): wrestlers take 55.7% — control wins over submission hunting at MW.

TEST✓ Bo Nickal

Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia

Featherweight · Diego Lopes def. Steve Garcia (KO/TKO, R2 2:42)

BASELINE✗ Steve Garcia · 80%Defense-first: Garcia str_def 59% vs 45%, sapm 2.12 vs 4.56, td_def 88% vs 68% — wide defensive gaps everywhere.

BOOKWORM✗ Steve GarciaEDGE/CAUTION: anti-market consensus — engines sweep Garcia on surface form while ELO + market hold Lopes (Volkanovski-level opposition). CONTRARIAN case STRONG: confidence reduced; strength-of-schedule is the blind spot.

DATA✗ Steve Garcia · 80%DB-confirmed BASELINE with strength-of-schedule caveat: Garcia 6 straight wins (db: Onama KO1, Kattar UD...) but Lopes' 2 recent losses are both Volkanovski title fights.

ELO✓ Diego Lopes · 77%Elo 2944 vs 2730 favors Lopes: the only engine encoding strength-of-schedule (title-fight opposition) picks the underdog of our consensus.

MASTER✗ Steve Garcia · 67%Trust-weighted 6.0-3.0 (ELO + MARKET dissent for Lopes). Tier B nominal — CONTRARIAN STRONG documented: treat as coin flip. EDGE: lab vs market (-185 Lopes) divergence.

ML✗ Steve Garcia · 55%v2.3 logistic 0.55 Garcia — barely: elo_diff +214 for Lopes nearly cancels the defensive differentials.

MOMENTUM✗ Steve Garcia · 78%Form 0.373 vs 1.297: Garcia W-W-W with finishes vs Lopes L-W-L; 223d vs 132d layoff.

ORACLE✗ Steve Garcia · 73%Weighted differential -2.00 Garcia: defense terms dominate; reach +3in Garcia; formula cannot see opponent quality.

STYLE

Analysis and entertainment only. Not betting advice.

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs Gaethje

The Card